Is the 38x GEM valuation really high?
Is the 38x GEM valuation really high?
Source: Xiaoji ran 1 at a time, and even plunged 4 during the session today.
08% can also block the pace of GEM index growth.
Source of the data on the ChiNext indication on February 25: Source: Wind and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 compare the trend, which can better reflect the strength of ChiNext.
GEM since 2020 points to VS CSI 300 Data Source: Wind Data End Date: 20200225 The GEM that has been rising all the way after the Spring Festival, is more and more favored by funds, and the transaction volume has refreshed a record high: February 18, GEM transaction volume2322.
USD 6.4 billion, exceeding the peak of the bull market in 2015, setting a new historical high; On February 19, the GEM transaction volume continued to increase to 2393.
1.5 billion; February 21, 2658.
9.8 billion yuan; February 24, 2805.
1.3 billion; February 25, 3202.
The popularity of ChiNext is very high, as is the estimate 四川耍耍网 of ChiNext.
Wind data show that as of February 24, the GEM Index’s rolling price-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) reached 64.
38 times, more than 87 in history.
18% of trading days.
GEM Index PE Ratio (PE-TTM) Data Source: Wind Data Expiry Date: 20200224 Most of the partners who have not yet got “on the bus” will be “dispelled” by GEM’s high estimates, and those already on board will feel trembling.
Is the GEM estimate really high?
2 Don’t worry, there are different voices.
64 mentioned above.
How is the 38x GEM Index PE-TTM calculated?
Let’s talk about 5 cents.
We all know that PE = P / E, P is compliance, E is profit, P is changing every day, and E is updated based on data published in periodic reports (quarterly, semi-annual, annual), which is relatively lagging.
Corresponding to the index, P is the sum of the Portland value of the index, E is the 上海夜网论坛 sum of the net profit of fractional shares, and TTM is the “twelve-month tracking”, which is the most recent 12 consecutive months.
As the 2019 annual report has not yet been released, the profit data is as of the end of September 2019. Compared with the continuous change of daily earnings, the profit data is obviously lagging.
But in fact, according to the regulations, GEM listed companies have all disclosed the 2019 annual report performance notice before the end of January.
A-share listed company performance disclosure timeline and according to the disclosed data, GEM’s 2019 annual report net profit growth rate reached 64.
43%, a new high of nearly four years.
Let’s do it again-according to the time during which the GEM index has continued to increase, P has increased significantly, and E is relatively lagging (still at the end of the third quarter of 2019). According to the data disclosed in the GEM annual report preview, E may increase significantly.
The 38 times GEM index rolling price-earnings ratio may be falsely high.
3 Regarding the ChiNext index, the dynamic price-earnings ratio may exceed the reference.
The numerator of the dynamic P / E ratio is still the total market value of the listed company, and the denominator data is the profit forecast for that year.
For the assessment index of 2020, the denominator data of the dynamic price-earnings ratio is the market’s consensus expectation for 2020 earnings.
The data shows that the current price-earnings ratio of the GEM index (about 30 times) is at the median level from 2016 to the present, which is basically consistent with the historical quantile of the dynamic price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which is not high.
GEM index and CSI 300 dynamic P / E ratio Data source: Wind, Monita This is mainly because GEM’s profit growth rate in 2020 is expected to be very strong, which has now reached 60% (that is, the market’s expected GEM profit ratio in 2020 in 2019Up 60%).
GEM index 2020 earnings growth is expected to be very strong Data sources: Wind, Monita. In summary, due to the lag in profit data, the GEM index is currently 64.
The 38x rolling price-earnings ratio is actually falsely high.
If we use the dynamic price-earnings ratio to measure the GEM index estimate, it is currently at the median level since 2016. 4 Moreover, the estimation of a single factor is not sufficient as a basis for judging fluctuations.
It is estimated that, under reasonable circumstances, is the result of a market transaction, not the cause of the transaction.
In fact, when the expected rise or fall has ended, you will find that the stock valuation is high or low.
But you can’t say that it will rise when it is low, and it will fall when it is high. In most cases, it is estimated that it can be low again, and it can be high again.
Judging from the actual historical data, the estimated trend is basically the same as the expected trend, but it is different in magnitude.
From 2000 to the present, the comparison between the Wind All-A index and the index P / E ratio From this point of view, judging the direction of the change in the estimate is the same as the direction of the change in the forecast. The estimate does not provide too much leading information on future changes.
Therefore, if it is not optimistic about the GEM simply because of the high price-earnings ratio, it may not be reasonable.
First of all, this price-earnings ratio is a bit lagging and does not reflect the actual situation. Second, the high or low price-earnings ratio is not enough to judge the rise or fall.
Take a chestnut: This round of the GEM was launched in early December 2019. At that time, the PE-TTM of the GEM index was about 50 times and the CSI 300 was about 11 times. If you only look at the estimates, hug the CSI 300 and give up.gem.
In fact, there are many reasons to explain this round of the GEM, a slight decline, a rebound in performance, a boom in the technology cycle, capital inflows, and so on.
Of course, the tree will not rise to the sky.
If the above favorable factors are falsified or reversed, then the market for the GEM may have come to an end.